This was a really great interview. I always read things about how the Russian economy was "overheating" but that doesn't mean anything to me. This was much more informative, giving clarity and shedding light on the true situation of Russia's finances. I just hope it's not overly optimistic.
Putin's crunch time is long overdue. When he has to decide between scaling down military spending, mobilisation and raising taxes, the rocks and the hard places will move in closer to him until there's nowhere left to move.
I just have one more question. Milov said he doubts the 30,000 figure is true. So with this article, we have sort of answered the question of what is going to happen to Russia's economy. But that doesn't answer what will happen with Russia's troop shortages (if there are any).
Realistically, the questions I would like to see answered with a similarly detailed explanation would be: "How many men is Russia actually recruiting per month, how many are they actually irrecoverably losing and how long can they keep that up until either a second mobilisation or direly understrength units loom?"
I have seen the estimate 30 000 per month for quite some time. It is often mentioned as a target as well, stating that unless Russia manages this recruitment they cannot sustain the incurred losses. The threshold was set as 1000 per day. Loss estimates are of course notoriously difficult, currently the Western estimates are around 1500 per day, but so far Russia seems to manage replacing. I personally believe more in the Western loss estimates and successful recruiting than this analysis saying it is impossible. But of course the uncertainty here is high. In the end they both point to a non-sustainable situation. Who nobody knows when and how will break.
Seems like the Russian government can finance the war into 2026. The Russian companies may face bankruptcy în 2025 and there will be shortages of different products. The population will start to fell the pressure at the end of 2025.
Excellent. This is all stuff I strongly suspected from doing tons of reading, but it's really great to see it laid out so clearly all in one place and confirmed.
Very insightful overview on the Russian economy. I knew most of the aspects discussed and had guessed on others but this drew the various components into a single narrative. Unfortunately its impact on the war will be limited as l doubt Ukraine can last another 12 months. It might however influence any negotiations if Putin thinks he may have to fight for another 12 months. If he doesn’t his demands will be maximalist anyway. He won it just was very expensive
Ukraine can last for decades more, even if they have to resort to guerrilla warfare (which was the original plan, and they will do it if they have to). Russia blows up before August 2025 at the latest. However, it would be better for Ukrainian people if they didn't have to resort to guerrilla warfare
This was a really great interview. I always read things about how the Russian economy was "overheating" but that doesn't mean anything to me. This was much more informative, giving clarity and shedding light on the true situation of Russia's finances. I just hope it's not overly optimistic.
Putin's crunch time is long overdue. When he has to decide between scaling down military spending, mobilisation and raising taxes, the rocks and the hard places will move in closer to him until there's nowhere left to move.
I just have one more question. Milov said he doubts the 30,000 figure is true. So with this article, we have sort of answered the question of what is going to happen to Russia's economy. But that doesn't answer what will happen with Russia's troop shortages (if there are any).
Realistically, the questions I would like to see answered with a similarly detailed explanation would be: "How many men is Russia actually recruiting per month, how many are they actually irrecoverably losing and how long can they keep that up until either a second mobilisation or direly understrength units loom?"
I have seen the estimate 30 000 per month for quite some time. It is often mentioned as a target as well, stating that unless Russia manages this recruitment they cannot sustain the incurred losses. The threshold was set as 1000 per day. Loss estimates are of course notoriously difficult, currently the Western estimates are around 1500 per day, but so far Russia seems to manage replacing. I personally believe more in the Western loss estimates and successful recruiting than this analysis saying it is impossible. But of course the uncertainty here is high. In the end they both point to a non-sustainable situation. Who nobody knows when and how will break.
Excellent, informative piece. Well written & easy to follow.
Thanks for the share
Great interview. I found it eye-oppening.
Thank you for sharing.
Seems like the Russian government can finance the war into 2026. The Russian companies may face bankruptcy în 2025 and there will be shortages of different products. The population will start to fell the pressure at the end of 2025.
So Ukraine still facem 6-12 hard months.
Excellent. This is all stuff I strongly suspected from doing tons of reading, but it's really great to see it laid out so clearly all in one place and confirmed.
Very insightful overview on the Russian economy. I knew most of the aspects discussed and had guessed on others but this drew the various components into a single narrative. Unfortunately its impact on the war will be limited as l doubt Ukraine can last another 12 months. It might however influence any negotiations if Putin thinks he may have to fight for another 12 months. If he doesn’t his demands will be maximalist anyway. He won it just was very expensive
Ukraine can last for decades more, even if they have to resort to guerrilla warfare (which was the original plan, and they will do it if they have to). Russia blows up before August 2025 at the latest. However, it would be better for Ukrainian people if they didn't have to resort to guerrilla warfare
Thanks for this, detailed and informative.
Seems that the Trumps peace plan comes in just in time to wind down the war, open up the economy and get a nice bonus of 20% of Ukrainian lands.
I had a similar thought… but it depends on Putin acting on it. And Trump really delivering the plan.
Excellent!