One fact that you did not mention in your post, is that young Russians have compulsory military service in their early 20s. It is forbidden by law to use these troops outside Russia, so none of them is sent to Ukraine. They may be stationed on the border of Ukraine in the defensive positions.
The fact that young Russians serve in the military in a completely different way from older Russians must have some impact on your findings. There is some evidence that commanders are trying to shame and bully conscripted young Russians into signing contracts at the end of their conscript service. How all this fits into the bigger picture of Russian military recruitment, I'm not quite sure, but it is part of the bigger picture.
Interesting findings. One aspect I didn't see mentioned is that due to the shape of Russia's population pyramid, there might simply be more potential recruits in the mid to late thirties category. The fertility rate plummeted after 1990, as the Soviet Union collapsed.
While youre correct, its of course not an issue of the law that prevents Russia from using those conscripts, but a political calculation to avoid unrest.
Agree! The only limited resource the Russians have is their manpower. APCs, trucks and at a later stage - tanks North Korea and China will supply. So the key is how to keep the casualties ratio in favor of Ukraine.
Sorry for writing from peaceful distance about such topics. What I meant is something like ‚war as a contest of wills‘ expressed in the age of warriors. If Russia can‘t find young recruits (or the political capital to mobilize them), while Ukraine can, that would bode well. All the best.
Have you compared the trends of age increase between Ukraine and Russia? If the latter is (much) steeper, one could argue that somewhen around the intersection of both lines Ukraine will be winning?
We did analyze the available dataset, but it is much smaller, so we can’t provide a definitive average age. However, the trend is very similar. The key difference is that there is no widespread myth about Ukraine having endless manpower reserves.
For Ukraine situation is different as it rolled out a full mobilisation, meaning that people between 25-55 are obliged to join the army, they do not have the choice. So the age shift to the right is predetermined but the explanation of that shift is different.
Yet still the numbers for Ukraine will be interesting to look for sure
Great data ! Bravo
One fact that you did not mention in your post, is that young Russians have compulsory military service in their early 20s. It is forbidden by law to use these troops outside Russia, so none of them is sent to Ukraine. They may be stationed on the border of Ukraine in the defensive positions.
The fact that young Russians serve in the military in a completely different way from older Russians must have some impact on your findings. There is some evidence that commanders are trying to shame and bully conscripted young Russians into signing contracts at the end of their conscript service. How all this fits into the bigger picture of Russian military recruitment, I'm not quite sure, but it is part of the bigger picture.
Interesting findings. One aspect I didn't see mentioned is that due to the shape of Russia's population pyramid, there might simply be more potential recruits in the mid to late thirties category. The fertility rate plummeted after 1990, as the Soviet Union collapsed.
While youre correct, its of course not an issue of the law that prevents Russia from using those conscripts, but a political calculation to avoid unrest.
They have endless manpower until they don't
Agree! The only limited resource the Russians have is their manpower. APCs, trucks and at a later stage - tanks North Korea and China will supply. So the key is how to keep the casualties ratio in favor of Ukraine.
Fascinating insights. Well done.
Yes, sure. Thanks for the swift reply.
Sorry for writing from peaceful distance about such topics. What I meant is something like ‚war as a contest of wills‘ expressed in the age of warriors. If Russia can‘t find young recruits (or the political capital to mobilize them), while Ukraine can, that would bode well. All the best.
Have you compared the trends of age increase between Ukraine and Russia? If the latter is (much) steeper, one could argue that somewhen around the intersection of both lines Ukraine will be winning?
We did analyze the available dataset, but it is much smaller, so we can’t provide a definitive average age. However, the trend is very similar. The key difference is that there is no widespread myth about Ukraine having endless manpower reserves.
For Ukraine situation is different as it rolled out a full mobilisation, meaning that people between 25-55 are obliged to join the army, they do not have the choice. So the age shift to the right is predetermined but the explanation of that shift is different.
Yet still the numbers for Ukraine will be interesting to look for sure