Kyiv has been gripped by political crisis in recent days, with protests erupting in the wake of Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko’s resignation and the Cabinet’s subsequent dismissal.
I would like to add a few thoughts. While of course the issue of addressing changes to certain processes such as mobilisation or other processes relevant to the ministry of defence, there is already much to gain simply from Sirsky’s dismissal.
The constant breaking up of units, the culture of lying/loyalty over truth and feedback, the instances of abuse in units directly under Sirsky, the refusal to properly withdraw before horrible cauldrons form…
All of this being absent, and hopefully improved, will lead to much better morale and effectiveness of the defenders. Less unnecessary losses. New tactics and strategies discovered from the bottom can flow up and spread horizontally. This and a lot more are really powerful force multipliers, especially if the AWOL rate declines and increases the public’s willingness to sign up to fight voluntarily.
Would it really take 6-12 months to stop the TCC grabbing men off the street and shoving them into unmarked vans like it's a police state, as opposed to, I don't know, something a bit more civilised (I don't recall such practices in Britain in WW1-2).
TCC should not be grabbing men off the street at all - it is the police that should do this job, as they do with the other guys not abiding the laws. TCC should merely pick these men from the police, check if they are eligible, do the paperwork and dispatch them to training centres. This alone would significantly decrease "fear and hatred of TCC", cultivated and amplified by russia.
Is it necessary to "grab anyone off the street" at all? Of course, if leave and rotation conditions were better, maybe less men would want to evade anyway. But I sort of understand it. Nobody wants to die in a trench and there is an impression that mobilisation = high chance of death or injury as opposed to a more "safe" military job.
Right, it is like a fear of... well, anything: covid, missiles, etc, etc. For the first, perhaps, half a year, people were really scared of air alerts. As time passed, people in more or less "calm" cities started to ignore air alerts - like, "Yeah, there might be an incoming missile, but it is unlikely to hit me. I have things to do other than hiding". The fear has gone. Same thing with the army - yes, there is a higher chance of death or injury, but soldiers get used to it, because there are important things to do. With a good command and good training, one's chances to die in a trench are way lower, though not zero.
Of course, people try to mitigate risks - civilians move to safer cities if they can, and soldiers try to find a unit with a good reputation of more "safe" military job, to decrease chance of dying. There are risk we have to accept, but the less risk the better.
I dunno if war can be compared to covid and I say that as someone who has been royally fucked by covid.
With a good command and good training, one's chances to die in a trench are way lower, though not zero.
I agree but the Russian side now uses FPV drones extensively, and there aren't many good counters for the Ukrainian side yet. If this was like the Gulf War where one side had total superiority it would certainly feel a lot safer. Also the bad command or bad training for certain units has been a problem for Ukraine, so kicking out Federov was not going to help with reforming that. To me it is a rational fear because it's a numbers thing. Say 100000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Out of 900000 total serving. If that is a 1 in 9 chance of being killed, that is much higher than if you get covid (as a young person).
WHY DID PEOPLE TAKE TO THE STREETS IN SUPPORT OF FEDOROV?
BECAUSE IN MODERN UKRAINE, TECHNOLOGY HAS ALREADY BECOME PART OF POLITICS — AND THE IMAGE OF AN EFFECTIVE REFORMER IS A RARE RESOURCE SOCIETY IS NOT READY TO LOSE. I BREAK IT DOWN IN MY NEW ARTICLE. ⚡️📖
Any thoughts on Andrii Hnatov's dismissal as Chief of the General Staff? I honestly know very little about him (or even how much power his position has). Was he problematic? Is Ihor Skybiuk an improvement?
Great analysis! Thanks!
Very good reporting, thank you 👍
Great write up, thanks!
I would like to add a few thoughts. While of course the issue of addressing changes to certain processes such as mobilisation or other processes relevant to the ministry of defence, there is already much to gain simply from Sirsky’s dismissal.
The constant breaking up of units, the culture of lying/loyalty over truth and feedback, the instances of abuse in units directly under Sirsky, the refusal to properly withdraw before horrible cauldrons form…
All of this being absent, and hopefully improved, will lead to much better morale and effectiveness of the defenders. Less unnecessary losses. New tactics and strategies discovered from the bottom can flow up and spread horizontally. This and a lot more are really powerful force multipliers, especially if the AWOL rate declines and increases the public’s willingness to sign up to fight voluntarily.
Would it really take 6-12 months to stop the TCC grabbing men off the street and shoving them into unmarked vans like it's a police state, as opposed to, I don't know, something a bit more civilised (I don't recall such practices in Britain in WW1-2).
TCC should not be grabbing men off the street at all - it is the police that should do this job, as they do with the other guys not abiding the laws. TCC should merely pick these men from the police, check if they are eligible, do the paperwork and dispatch them to training centres. This alone would significantly decrease "fear and hatred of TCC", cultivated and amplified by russia.
Is it necessary to "grab anyone off the street" at all? Of course, if leave and rotation conditions were better, maybe less men would want to evade anyway. But I sort of understand it. Nobody wants to die in a trench and there is an impression that mobilisation = high chance of death or injury as opposed to a more "safe" military job.
Right, it is like a fear of... well, anything: covid, missiles, etc, etc. For the first, perhaps, half a year, people were really scared of air alerts. As time passed, people in more or less "calm" cities started to ignore air alerts - like, "Yeah, there might be an incoming missile, but it is unlikely to hit me. I have things to do other than hiding". The fear has gone. Same thing with the army - yes, there is a higher chance of death or injury, but soldiers get used to it, because there are important things to do. With a good command and good training, one's chances to die in a trench are way lower, though not zero.
Of course, people try to mitigate risks - civilians move to safer cities if they can, and soldiers try to find a unit with a good reputation of more "safe" military job, to decrease chance of dying. There are risk we have to accept, but the less risk the better.
I dunno if war can be compared to covid and I say that as someone who has been royally fucked by covid.
With a good command and good training, one's chances to die in a trench are way lower, though not zero.
I agree but the Russian side now uses FPV drones extensively, and there aren't many good counters for the Ukrainian side yet. If this was like the Gulf War where one side had total superiority it would certainly feel a lot safer. Also the bad command or bad training for certain units has been a problem for Ukraine, so kicking out Federov was not going to help with reforming that. To me it is a rational fear because it's a numbers thing. Say 100000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Out of 900000 total serving. If that is a 1 in 9 chance of being killed, that is much higher than if you get covid (as a young person).
Did you join the military if I may ask?
WHY DID PEOPLE TAKE TO THE STREETS IN SUPPORT OF FEDOROV?
BECAUSE IN MODERN UKRAINE, TECHNOLOGY HAS ALREADY BECOME PART OF POLITICS — AND THE IMAGE OF AN EFFECTIVE REFORMER IS A RARE RESOURCE SOCIETY IS NOT READY TO LOSE. I BREAK IT DOWN IN MY NEW ARTICLE. ⚡️📖
https://sashaantonov.substack.com/p/why-ukrainians-took-to-the-streets?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5feb9f
Any thoughts on Andrii Hnatov's dismissal as Chief of the General Staff? I honestly know very little about him (or even how much power his position has). Was he problematic? Is Ihor Skybiuk an improvement?