Special Report: A Convoy of Over One Hundred Russian Vehicles Arrives in Mali
Assessing the Convoy and Its Origins
In a surprising turn of events on January 17, 2025, a convoy of over 100 vehicles - including tanks, trucks, IFVs, artillery, and other heavy equipment, rolled into Bamako, the multi-million capital of Mali, seemingly appearing out of nowhere. Such a start to the year is in sharp contrast to how 2024 unfolded for Russia in MENA region, a year marked by setbacks in its operations in Mali. In July, the Russian forces suffered a devastating ambush near Tinzaouaten, in Mali’s western region, losing dozens of operatives to an ambush by CSP-DPA (Defense of the People of Azawad) and JNIM (Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin).
By September, the situation had deteriorated further. JNIM launched a series of attacks in Bamako, including a bold attack on the city’s airbase, which is right next to a Russian military camp. The attack left roughly 100 Malians dead and hundreds wounded. In November, another attack killed between five and seven Russians, raising uncomfortable questions about Russia’s ability to stabilize the region despite its involvement since 2021.
But Russia’s problems were not finished yet. December brought the dramatic collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, forcing Moscow into a retreat and evacuation of military assets from Syria. The potential loss of critical infrastructure, including the Khmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base, threatens to undermine Russia’s ability to project power across the Middle East and Africa. It appeared as though the entire Russian operation in Africa was being called into question
Given the acute demand for Russian forces in Ukraine, particularly as Russia struggles to reclaim territory in the Kursk region, the deployment of such a significant number of vehicles to what many would consider a lower-priority theater was unexpected. This development immediately sparked questions and speculation: Were these troops redeployed from Syria? How did they arrive? And why Mali, and why now? To answer least some of these questions, we collaborated with French OSINT analyst specializing in African affairs, operating under the online moniker Casusbelli, to produce today's report.
Contents
I. The Column
II. Convoy Composition and Combat Capabilities
III. The Origin
IV. Implications and Key Takeaways
Sources
I. The Column
On 17th of January, 2025, local media “Cap Mali+” from Bamako, capital of Mali has recorded an over 30 minute video of an impressive column of vehicles, passing through unknown African streets.
The column comprised over 100 vehicles, roughly half of which were trucks of various configurations. The remainder consisted predominantly of mobile armored cars, including Ural and Tigr models, alongside tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), artillery, and even two boats.
The location of the footage was geolocated to the southwestern outskirts of Bamako, near coordinates 12.545009, -8.120543. The convoy was moving toward the center of the Malian capital.
So, beyond the obvious fact that these are Russian vehicles, how can we be sure they aren’t Russian-made equipment sourced from other countries and sold to Mali?
The images above provide clear evidence.
Picture 1: An ambulance marked with Russian Cyrillic text: "Скорая Медицинская Помощь" (Emergency Medical Assistance).
Picture 2: A plate featuring vehicle model identification in Russian: "МТО-УБ1".
Picture 3: A modified T-72 tank, equipped with a "cope-cage" designed to protect against drones.
Our team was unable to identify any “white-looking” personnel among the convoy's crews. All observed drivers appeared to look like native Malians, suggesting that the actual crews for these vehicles might be transported separately, likely via airlift.
At this time, we do not have information on which Russian unit will operate these vehicles, but we assume it is most likely to be the Africa Corps. This unit was, unsurprisingly, established with the goal of replacing the Wagner Group in Africa, but with a structure that is far more loyal and controllable by the military and the Kremlin
II. Convoy Composition and Combat Capabilities
Before we move further, it’s worth noting that, as of now, our team cannot say with certainty whether this convoy is a lone appearance or just the first in a series of vehicle and equipment deliveries yet to come. It’s also possible that other shipments earlier slipped under the radar. With this caution in mind, let’s examine the convoy’s composition.
The total number of vehicles and equipment is consistent with an expeditionary battalion-tactical group. Logistics, supplies, and transportation make up nearly 50% of the column. The number of combat armored vehicles is closer to 60, the majority of which are designed for patrol and mobile warfare, such as BTRs, VPK-Ural, Tigrs, and armored trucks. The column also includes roughly two tank platoons and two BMP-3 platoons. Additionally, there are two anti-aircraft autocannons, two motorboats, and three towed artillery pieces.
In general, the number of armored MRAPs aligns more closely with that of a battalion. When factoring in the reinforcement provided by BMP and tank platoons, as well as the inclusion of self-sufficient logistical support, we can confidently classify this as an expeditionary battalion-tactical group. It is also worth noting that Russia has previously employed a bit similar configuration in Syria for patrol operations - utilizing multiple armored light vehicles supported by a BTR
Given that convoy includes not only military vehicles but also “civilian” ambulances and multiple smaller Russian-made buses, it seems unlikely that this was a straightforward vehicle purchase by Mali. Acquiring such numbers and configurations of vehicles, including civilian, wouldn't make much practical sense for a standard procurement.
III. The Origin
One of the most important questions arising is: where do they come from? And do they come from Syria? The short answer is no. Here is what we know about the origin of vehicles and how they got there: