Our research, based on tens of thousands of personal records, shows that the typical deserter in the Russian army is a 37-year-old male under contract, and that his chance of desertion in 2025 doubled compared with 2024.
"In Ukraine, high AWOL and desertion rates are a serious concern, though they sometimes provide a backdoor for soldiers to transfer to another unit. In Russia, the situation is different: desertion almost always means leaving service entirely, with no intention of voluntary returning."
Well that's good. There is a big difference in the types of desertion. During the earlier part of the American Civil War, it was common for Confederate soldiers to desert (or AWOL) to go home and take care of their families for a while, because virtually the whole young adult male population had been conscripted. Later on mass desertions increased as the war became more hopeless and pointless and civilian lives became harder.
On the Union side, there were plenty who signed up just to get the signing bonus, and also some who signed up, deserted and then signed up again under a different name (they were eventually given the death penalty).
I have to wonder why a Russian soldier who is willing to die for a payout would suddenly change his mind after he gets to the front. Maybe they never intended to die, just to get some money and then run.
I have an idea why they would change their minds: because they get completely lied to about the nature of the war, and only when they get to the front can they see the reality for themselves.
It's been going on for 3 years now, any dumbarse with a smart phone and Telegram (which is the vast majority of Russians) can see the nature of the war on any of those channels. As my Russian friend tells it, they know they will die and don't care because their family will get a payout.
As far as I know most of the hardcore convicts were used up under Wagner some years ago. My friend's colleague's husband got into a fight with some returned soldiers, got thrown in jail and offered a contract. And he accepted. All within a few weeks. That is now common.
Interesting to compare the desertion rates between Ukraine and Russia, yet of course the information environment is more inclined to fixate on the Ukrainian situation than Russian. Your analysis is very much appreciated in redressing the balance 👍
"In Ukraine, high AWOL and desertion rates are a serious concern, though they sometimes provide a backdoor for soldiers to transfer to another unit. In Russia, the situation is different: desertion almost always means leaving service entirely, with no intention of voluntary returning."
Well that's good. There is a big difference in the types of desertion. During the earlier part of the American Civil War, it was common for Confederate soldiers to desert (or AWOL) to go home and take care of their families for a while, because virtually the whole young adult male population had been conscripted. Later on mass desertions increased as the war became more hopeless and pointless and civilian lives became harder.
On the Union side, there were plenty who signed up just to get the signing bonus, and also some who signed up, deserted and then signed up again under a different name (they were eventually given the death penalty).
I have to wonder why a Russian soldier who is willing to die for a payout would suddenly change his mind after he gets to the front. Maybe they never intended to die, just to get some money and then run.
I have an idea why they would change their minds: because they get completely lied to about the nature of the war, and only when they get to the front can they see the reality for themselves.
It's been going on for 3 years now, any dumbarse with a smart phone and Telegram (which is the vast majority of Russians) can see the nature of the war on any of those channels. As my Russian friend tells it, they know they will die and don't care because their family will get a payout.
Perhaps you don't get the memo when you're in a russian prison? The report says most recruits come from coerced environments.
> "Moscow still manages to meet recruitment quotas, though increasingly by drawing on coerced pools"
As far as I know most of the hardcore convicts were used up under Wagner some years ago. My friend's colleague's husband got into a fight with some returned soldiers, got thrown in jail and offered a contract. And he accepted. All within a few weeks. That is now common.
Look at the circle graphs, the majority are on contract. Conscription/convicts is indeed increasingly used, but still isn’t a majority.
Good work as always 👍.
Interesting to compare the desertion rates between Ukraine and Russia, yet of course the information environment is more inclined to fixate on the Ukrainian situation than Russian. Your analysis is very much appreciated in redressing the balance 👍