Preliminary Assessment: ATACMS Strike on Berdyansk Airport

Analyzing the Aftermath

In response to reports of a successful strike at Berdiansk airport, carried out by ATACMS and substantiated by accompanying videos, our team conducted an initial analysis. This involved a comparison between high-resolution imagery from September and medium-resolution imagery from October 17th. The results of this analysis have indeed confirmed the strike's success at the airport.

The official Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) account has officially confirmed the successful execution of Operation "Dragonfly." This operation effectively targeted both Berdyansk and Luhansk Airfields, resulting in the following reported losses:

• 9 helicopters

• 1 air defense launcher

• Special vehicles

• Ammunition depots

• Damage to airstrips

Our preliminary analysis aligns with the statement from the MoD, indicating that multiple vehicles are likely to be burnt or destroyed. Additionally, it's probable that more vehicles have sustained damage. Yet, due to the limited quality of the available imagery, we cannot definitively determine the extent of this damage at this time.

By examining historical imagery from September and August, it becomes evident that this section of the airfield has consistently been used to house attack helicopters, including models such as the Mi-28, Mi-24, and Ka-52.

Numbers 1 to 4 — Ka-52, Number 5 — Mi-24, Number 6 — Service trucks

This high level of consistency provides us with strong confidence in asserting that the helicopters lost by Russia are likely the very ones previously identified in this area.

Furthermore, it's worth highlighting that a substantial number of other helicopters have remained stationary on the airstrip, even in the aftermath of the attack.

While multiple explanations exist for this behavior, we opt for a cautious approach, refraining from speculative conclusions, and instead, we will await further data in the coming days to see if the situation evolves.

In conclusion, we would like to note that the scale of damage is likely more extensive than what we've reported here. Additional signs of destruction exist on the airfield; however, we haven't included these details in this report due to the challenge of properly identifying objects and assessing the extent of their damage. For instance, burnt grass doesn't necessarily confirm the destruction of stationary objects.

Additionally, it's worth noting that this report focuses exclusively on Berdiansk Airport and doesn't encompass Luhansk Airport. Nevertheless, the impact of this devastating attack is undeniable. It will likely disrupt helicopter operations in the South of Ukraine for some time, compelling the Russians to adjust their logistics and the operations of nearby helicopter bases.

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