Latest on Avdiivka and Helicopters Operations

Ukraine, January 2024

By the end of 2023, Frontelligence Insight reported a stabilized situation in Avdiivka. Recent developments indicate a worsening of the situation for Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka. Russians have achieved limited successes in the southern residential area, managing to infiltrate it with infantry, marking a notable shift from the previously stabilized conditions.

While the northern part of Avdiivka is protected by the AKHZ (factory) with robust industrial structures, the southern area primarily consists of vulnerable one to two-story houses susceptible to artillery fire. This sets the right conditions for a known Russian approach: if unable to capture the area, bombard it with artillery, dispatch the light infantry, and capture the rubble.

The evident artillery strikes, progressing from the outskirts into residential areas, indicate a shift towards this approach. While the imagery doesn't reveal who controls the area, it foreshadows the increasing difficulty in defending the area as it gradually transforms into ruins. The same vulnerability extends to nearby multi-story apartment buildings, which have been targeted for destruction by Russian FAB hits before.

The situation on the flanks remains relatively stable, enabling Ukrainian forces to sustain their defense of Avdiivka. Analysis of imagery indicates a continued shift of artillery fire north of Avdiivka, targeting areas near Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynivka. This ongoing trend suggests Russian efforts to move along the Avdiivka flanks and disrupt Ukrainian logistical lines in more rear areas that are less protected.

Our team continues to observe fresh artillery marks in Stepove, Berdychi, and the surrounding area, signaling sustained pressure in these areas, with Stepove-Berdychi remaining a hot spot.

In summary, the situation in Avdiivka has worsened for Ukrainian forces, facing a gradual expulsion from defended residential areas amid a lack of effective countermeasures against Russian artillery. Ukraine's limited artillery ammo availability, hindered by insufficient European deliveries, and obstructed aid from the US due to internal political challenges, have left a gap, which Russia exploits by leveraging its artillery ammo advantage supplied by Iran and predominantly North Korea. FPV drones remain pivotal, serving defensive purposes for Ukraine against Russian assaults, while Russians effectively deploy them to target Ukrainian logistical routes and aim artillery/air strikes

Resurgence of Helicopter Operations

Our team previously identified a FARP (Forward Arming and Refueling Point) helicopter base in Strilkove. Following Ukraine's ATACMS strikes on Russian airfields in Luhansk and Berdyansk, the base was abandoned by the Russians and remained unused until recently.

Recent satellite imagery from January 2024 reveals the presence of Russian helicopters at the base. Analysis over multiple days indicates that Russians maintain no more than 3-4 helicopters at a time. Additionally, the helicopters appear to be more dispersed, despite the limited space available.

Frontelligence Insight has consistently highlighted that Russians will adapt to Western weaponry supplied to Ukraine. We believe true effectiveness requires a sufficient supply of these weapons to achieve a lasting shift in the balance of power, rather than just a temporary improvement. When weaponry is provided in small numbers, it offers a short-term advantage, and while operational success is possible under favorable conditions, the enemy adapts and minimizes the advantage over time.

Our team has previously covered how Russian logistics adapt to these changes and will continue to provide updates in the coming weeks, as we have gathered substantial information on alterations to Russian military infrastructure.