Frontlines Situation Report - May 17th, 2024

Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Krasnohorivka, Kharkiv oblast, Sumy and Chernihiv border areas.

The situation along the entire frontline remains difficult. Russian forces have intensified their attacks in the Bakhmut area, deploying a greater quantity of troops. They have also made territorial gains in the Krasnohorivka area and achieved certain tactical advancements in Kharkiv oblast. Despite these developments, the frontline in Donbas remains relatively stable, with no signs of imminent collapse. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to concentrate their troops and carry out demonstrative maneuvers in Sumy Oblast, a development closely monitored by our team. Here is what we know at this time:

Chasiv Yar - Bakhmut

Despite rapid successes in the initial weeks of the assault against Chasiv Yar, including reaching the canal and, in some instances, crossing it with small groups, the Russians have ultimately failed to establish a foothold on the other side and advance further. Despite the concentration of units, including multiple airborne regiments and a brigade, supported by numerous motor rifle units, Russian forces have failed to make further advances beyond the Kalynivka area. They also didn’t progress in the Kanal quarter on the east side of the canal. Russians have been attempting to make progress in the southern flank of Chasiv Yar, deploying platoons and even company-sized forces of armored fighting vehicles, but without significant results thus far.

The situation south of Bakhmut is currently more complicated. We have unfortunately received multiple reports of Russian forces attempting to advance toward Klischiivka, involving a more frequent assault. Up to now, most of these attacks have been unsuccessful, resulting in the loss of significant equipment and personnel. However, it's unlikely that these attempts will cease soon, meaning there's still a risk for Klischiivka. Overall, we recommend paying closer attention to the Kurdyumivka-Klischiivka axis, which is under severe pressure, despite receiving relatively little media coverage at the moment due to the focus on the Kharkiv offensive.

Kharkiv oblast

The situation in the Kharkiv area remains challenging, though our team generally agrees that while unstable, it is not currently at risk of collapse. There are indications that Russian troops are continuing to infiltrate forests and individual buildings further south in an attempt to establish a foothold. However, we are skeptical about their ability to advance deep south due to several factors:

1. While Russian troops were initially able to disperse infantry forces along the border for an initial push, supplying them became increasingly difficult as they moved deeper into Ukrainian territory. As they attempt to push south, they would need to organize logistics for advancing troops, requiring a large number of vehicles. Given the redeployment of experienced brigades with drones and artillery, organizing extended logistics would prove very challenging for Russian units.

2. Without mechanized units fully equipped with proper combat vehicles like tanks, achieving swift and decisive penetration of defenses will be very challenging. This limitation is likely to result in slower and more limited advances, hampering the overall progress of Russian forces.
   
   As previously indicated, this operation likely aims to divert Ukrainian resources from Donbas and further stretch already thinly manned brigades along the extended frontline. Has their plan succeeded? Overall, a comprehensive summary is not yet possible. However, we have observed that Ukraine was compelled to redeploy some of its brigades to protect the Kharkiv area. Nevertheless, we have not seen a significant deployment of new large Russian reserves to Donbas, which would potentially overwhelm Ukrainian defenses while their reserves are engaged elsewhere. This doesn't rule out the possibility of such deployments in the future, but as of now, we have not observed this.

   
   Kurakhove Area

   

   In the Krasnohorivka-Kurakhove area, the situation remains concerning given the series of advances made by Russian forces in Krasnohorivka. It is probable that Russians will attempt to reach Kurakhivka, providing them with an opportunity to cut off Kurakhove from logistical routes. Due to the area's relatively favorable defensive structures and geographic conditions, we do not anticipate rapid advances by Russian forces there. Given the Russian attempt to advance in multiple directions simultaneously, they may struggle to achieve their goals due to a lack of sufficient forces Nonetheless, gradual advancement at a slower pace is still possible, making the situation difficult.

   
   Sumy - Chernihiv area
   

   Over the past month, our team has continued to monitor the movements of Russian forces in the vicinity of Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts. While we do not observe the presence of a significant invasion force in Chernihiv Oblast, this does not rule out the potential for small, localized incursions across the border aimed at extending the frontline and forcing the redeployment of Ukrainian troops. Similarly, in Sumy, we have observed a concentration of forces, larger than in areas close to Chernihiv. While we are unable to estimate the current number of forces in the area, we observe what we interpret as demonstrative actions, potentially exaggerating their presence to imply a larger troop size. Nevertheless, the threat of another border incursion into Sumy Oblast is real and aims to achieve objectives similar to those of the Kharkiv offensive.