Frontlines Overview: Recent Developments

Avdiivka, Kupyans'k, Andriivka - 29.11.2023

Our team continues to closely monitor the frontlines using a variety of technical and non-technical sources. The overall situation along the frontline remains highly active, and claims of a frozen or static frontline are, in our view, inaccurate. Presently, we believe that following the conclusion of the major phase of offensive operations by Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia, Russians have opted to seize the strategic initiative.

While assaults continue across the entire frontline, we have identified three highly active zones of Russian assaults:

• Kupyans’k area

• South of Bakhmut

• Avdiivka

Avdiivka remains the main effort point. Our team correctly recognized its significance from the outset and accurately assessed that Russia would commit substantial resources to this operation. Both open-source and on-the-ground sources indicate that, at present, Russian forces in the north of Avdiivka are unable to make significant advances westward beyond Stepove. Our earlier analyses have outlined the reasons for this, and the imagery from November 28 underscores the extensive artillery shelling in the highlighted area.

Russian forces persist in their efforts to establish a foothold at the AKHZ and expand their presence in the Wastewater Treatment Plant area near the Waste Heap. Additionally, they are attempting to extend north of Stepove along the railroad, as they have yet to establish persistent footholds across the railroad.

In the southern part of Avdiivka, particularly in the Industrial zone, Russian forces have gained partial control, albeit with substantial losses. The fluidity of the situation prevents a definitive conclusion regarding the establishment of permanent control over the industrial zone, but it’s safe to say that the situation for Ukrainian forces has worsened in the industrial zone and it might worsen further.

In Kharkiv oblast, particularly in the Kupyans'k area, Russian forces are trying to improve their tactical situation and persist in assault attempts near Syn’kivka. These attempts resulted in minimal achievements despite ongoing efforts for months. The overall situation appears relatively stable at the moment. The highlighted tree line shows visible damage from artillery shelling, indicating ongoing hostilities in that part of Syn'kivka.

One of the most active areas on the frontline is south of Bakhmut. The situation in this axis is difficult, marked by increased assault frequencies and a higher number of troops than usual, particularly in the Klischiivka-Andriivka-Kurdyumivka axis. Ukrainian forces have inflicted notable losses, but it's too early to say whether they will be able to repel all assaults successfully, given that Russians are gradually increasing pressure in that particular area.