Frontline Dynamics: Avdiivka's High Stakes and Further Insights into North Korean Ammo Deliveries

1. Avdiivka update

Our team has been closely monitoring developments in the Avdiivka area and conducting thorough analyses using various sources, including satellite imagery, on-the-ground reports, open-source intelligence (OSINT), and closed-source materials. Here is our assessment of the current situation in Avdiivka:

• Russians continue their efforts to establish a foothold on the opposite side of the railroad. While they managed to cross the railroad multiple times, they are facing challenges in securing a strong foothold.

• Ukrainian forces attempted a counter-attack in the Stepove area in the last days of October, deploying mechanized units. This attempt was only partially successful and resulted in confirmed vehicle losses on the Ukrainian side.

  

• Due to intense shelling, Stepove is no longer easily defensible, with significant damage to its structures. It's possible that Russian forces might capture it eventually, but it's uncertain whether they can maintain control and use it for further advances.

• Russian forces are likely focusing on two primary objectives at this time: Berdychi, a small town west of Stepove, which secures a crucial logistical route, and the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant (AKHZ), a large industrial zone with well-protected buildings, thick walls, and tunnels, playing a vital role in Avdiivka's defense. Achieving these goals will require a significant allocation of resources.

  

• Russians have been relocating two additional units from other areas of the frontline, reinforcing their existing force presence near Avdiivka. This suggests that the initial resources were insufficient to accomplish their set objectives, indicating a planning miscalculation.

• Our team anticipates that within the next two weeks, the fate of the battle for Avdiivka will become clearer. The arrival of reinforcements may be used to achieve one or both of the previously mentioned objectives. Failure to reach these goals may lead Russians to adopt tactics involving small tactical groups, extending the battle into the winter, resembling the situation in Vuhledar, which transitioned from large mechanized assaults to a war of small tactical groups at the squad and platoon levels.

• The loss of Avdiivka would have more extensive consequences for Ukraine than Bakhmut, seriously affecting the military landscape. The collapse of Avdiivka would open up significant operational space for maneuvering, allowing Russian forces to advance in multiple directions while achieving the political objective of pushing Ukrainian forces away from Donetsk.
  

Conversely, in the event of a failure, it would constitute one of the most humiliating battles for the Russian army in this war, surpassing the setback in Vuhledar. We believe that the Russian command is well aware of this, and they seem prepared to endure significantly higher casualties than an impartial observer might anticipate.

Overall, the current situation is undeniably critical for both sides:

• The Russians are displaying a will to commit forces and bring in reinforcements. However, if they fail to secure a foothold in Berdychi or at the AKHZ, taking Avdiivka in the next month becomes a daunting task. Our team holds doubts regarding Russia's capacity to sustain another battle resembling the one in Bakhmut, characterized by the mass deployment of tens of thousands of convicts.

• Simultaneously, a mistake in defense or a failed counter-attack could provide Russians with an opportunity to establish a foothold and gradually expand it. This scenario may eventually compel Ukrainian forces to abandon Avdiivka.

2. North Korean Shipments

Our team is pleased to share several important updates regarding North Korean shipments. Previously, we reported that we documented certain container shipments in October 2023, which reinforced our confidence in our source's claim about an additional 1,000 containers in October. Our latest satellite imagery provides visual evidence confirming at least 5 shipments between North Korea and Russia, after the White House's press release.

Although we cannot determine the exact count of containers transported by a single ship, our estimates range from a minimum of 106 (based on conservative analysis of October 27th imagery that did not account for double-stacked containers) to a maximum of 300 (as reported by the White House). With documentation of at least 5 shipments between two countries, the total estimate makes the number of 1,000 containers quite realistic.

The Associated Press reported that, during a background briefing for local journalists, South Korea's military suspected North Korea of sending an unspecified number of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). Our team made a diligent effort to scrutinize shipments, including examining the dimensions of unloaded cargo from containers. However, none of them appeared to match the expected dimensions of SRBM containers. While there is the possibility that we might have missed that specific container or that an alternate route was used for the shipment, we remain somewhat skeptical about reports regarding SRBM deliveries from North Korea to Russia, but cannot entirely dismiss this possibility.