Frontline Analysis: Assessing the Current Situation

Avdiivka, Mari'nka, Bakhmut – Future Outlook

General overview

The present status of the frontline can be characterized by dynamic movements of Russian forces in multiple areas across the frontline, to improve their tactical situation. Notable areas of focus are the Kupyansk-Lyman direction, and the northern and southern areas of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mari’nka. Russians also attempted to counterattack in the Zaporizhia region.

Our update does not include active zones in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, as we would like to cover it later. Despite the absence of significant Russian successes, the overall assessment of the current frontline situation leans towards being unfavorable for the Armed Forces of Ukraine for multiple reasons.

While Russian forces lack an overwhelming advantage, and their offensive capabilities are constrained, we will likely see partial success in mitigating the gains made by the AFU during the summer and fall.

Frontelligence Insight also has acquired documents indicating that Russia has created Storm-V units. According to these documents, units will predominantly consist of fit-for-service convicts who have signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense. The recruitment priority for Storm-V is set for the Airborne Troops (VDV), although it appears that some motor rifle units will also incorporate Storm-V units. Presently, it remains unclear how these units differ from the existing Storm-Z companies.

Avdiivka

The overall situation for the Ukrainian forces has stabilized, as the Russian offensive appears to have reached its peak. Russian forces have lost eager to assault and the number of operational equipment has been severely reduced. Russians were also unable to develop their success in the industrial zone, south of Avdiivka.

However, the logistical situation in Avdiivka has deteriorated for Ukrainian forces further. Despite employing nighttime supply routes to evade drone targeting, reports from the ground indicate that Russian forces are now utilizing FPV drones with thermal/night vision cameras, making it difficult to supply forces even at night.

Consequently, the logistical challenges have escalated, even though the overall military situation has stabilized. There is a potential shift in the Russian approach towards besieging defenders rather than pursuing the originally planned assault or encirclement of the city, although assaults will continue.

Mari’nka

The situation in Mari’nka is critical. Although specific details cannot be disclosed, our analysis indicates that the fall of Mari’nka is likely a matter of time. The collapse of Mari’nka can create operational opportunities for Russian forces toward Kurakhove and Vuhledar. If Russians will force Vuheldar defenders to retreat, they will be able to restore a crucial logistical railroad line, significantly reducing transportation times and enabling more mobile movements of units.

Bakhmut area

In the Bakhmut area, challenges persist as Russian forces continue to have limited and localized successes near Khromove and near Klischiivka. While the majority of their attacks have been successfully repelled with incurred losses, the overall outlook is less than optimistic. There is a potential risk that Ukrainian defenders may cede some previously gained positions from the summer-fall campaign. Given the current circumstances, the likelihood of a substantial breakthrough or a collapse is low at the moment.

Spirne

In the Spirne area, for the past week, Russians continued to launch assaults with small tactical groups, experiencing losses without achieving any tangible results. The overall situation appears to be stable in this area of the frontline.

Lyman-Kupyansk area

Russian forces continued to press in both the Lyman and Kupyansk directions. As of now, their efforts have not yielded substantial results. Our assessment suggests that Russia currently considers this direction as secondary. Even though the Lyman and Kupyansk directions are secondary, the persistent assaults continue. Should the Russians achieve success in the Bakhmut area, we anticipate a potential escalation of pressure in the Lyman and Kupiansk directions.

Summary

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are facing challenges entering the harsh winter season, marked by a scarcity of artillery ammunition, fatigue following an extensive summer-fall campaign, the withholding of aid by the US Congress, failure to deliver the necessary amount of ammo by European partners, among other factors detailed in the bonus section. Despite the overall unfavorable situation for the AFU, we assess that Russian forces are unlikely to execute another army-level assault. Drawing insights from experience in Avdiivka, where substantial commitments of armored and infantry units yielded limited gains, we do not anticipate significant breakthroughs or defense collapses in the near term.

Given the present disposition and allocation of Russian resources, there is a likelihood of observing battalion, brigade, and corps-level operations aimed at enhancing tactical situations and reclaiming lost positions from the summer and fall of 2023. The success of these operations, if executed without depleting the newly formed units, could potentially set the stage for a larger spring offensive in 2024. However, it is noteworthy that forecasting events in 2024 remains speculative at this point.

Bonus Materials:
(This section delves into the factors that have contributed to the current situation, addressing both the internal and external challenges confronted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine)