Evaluating the Current Status of Trains in Russian Logistics

A Close Examination of Kantemirovka Train Station

Russian railroads are a critical component of their logistics, allowing the rapid and cost-efficient movement of substantial quantities of ammunition, vehicles, fuel, construction materials, and personnel. Here's a brief post with an update on their logistical operations.

For a better understanding, let's examine Kantemirovka, a train station in Voronezh Oblast, right across the northern part of Luhansk Oblast, situated out of the range of artillery and HIMARS. It's located only a few hours from critical logistical hubs like Starobilsk. Since it’s located on russian territory, Western-supplied systems like Storm Shadow and ATACMS cannot be used against it.

In this case, the satellite captured the moment when russians were unloading equipment and vehicles from the train. This typically starts either late at night or early in the morning and finishes by dawn or noon, respectively. Here, many trucks with ammo and equipment had already left.

Russian occupational forces frequently unload trains during late nights and early mornings. Firstly, it allows them to reduce the number of witnesses who could record a video or take a photo. Moreover, it helps them avoid detection by optical satellites like this one.

Regrettably, the destruction of a single railway track does not inflict significant damage, as it can be quickly repaired. Moreover, due to the number of available tracks, the russians can easily reroute those trains, resulting in a relatively minor increase in transit time.

Following the offloading process, trucks transport the cargo to smaller facilities at the battalion or even company level. Consequently, attempting to target such a limited quantity with longer-range missiles would be an inefficient use, given their limited availability. While this approach adds logistical strain, initially, the russians heavily relied on civilian trucks during the refurbishment and recovery of their older truck fleet. At the time of writing, it appears they've successfully transitioned to military trucks for these operations.

As the war continues and drone technology advances, I think that the deployment of expendable drones with modest production costs and reasonable payloads, capable of being delivered over several hundred kilometers, will become a significant risk factor for russian logistics.
Additionally, I want to highlight that systems like Storm Shadow and ATACMS cannot be used against russian territory. This leaves limited alternatives, primarily domestic production (with its own constraints), and increasingly, drones, as a viable option for deeper strikes