Avdiivka Frontline: Logistics in Focus

November 12th Update

Per our earlier projection this week, the russian forces have gained partial control over the eastern portions of Stepove, and we anticipate that they will continue their attempts to take over the entire village. Here, we analyze the forthcoming developments and explain how we accurately foresaw recent advancements.

Despite negative assessments of russian tactics and high losses near Avdiivka, their overall approach has seen partial success. They managed to breach defense positions north of Avdiivka, reaching the railroad. This jeopardizes Avdiivka's resupply routes, creating few options for the russians - they can either seize Stepove and attempt to take Berdychi or take control of AKHZ. Either scenario puts pressure on the primary supply lines to Avdiivka.

Intense shelling and destruction of buildings in Stepove indicated to us that russians are likely to advance into Stepove, which then happened later this week. Defending piles of rubble is quite challenging for defenders. This is why, even after taking over Stepove, it may not be an effective foothold for further advancement into Berdychi.

We maintain skepticism about the russians advancing into Berdychi from Stepove, for various reasons, including logistical challenges. While russian forces have an alternative to exert pressure on Berdychi from the north, it comes with the drawback of overextending their logistics, leaving them vulnerable

In the broader context, logistics will be a key concern for both sides. Managing logistics across the railroad will be hard for russians, as illustrated in the photo. Simultaneously, during the mud season, many roads will be impassable, constraining resupply routes for defenders. russians are likely to attempt to gain fire control over these limited routes.

At present, the russians do not have fire control over the road linking Avdiivka with other forces. Nevertheless, we have received anecdotal reports suggesting their efforts to use FPV drones in an attempt to disrupt the supply route along the road.

At this stage, we anticipate that russians will employ squad to company-sized infantry groups to establish a foothold in AKHZ. Presently, the situation appears stable, with russian forces encountering difficulties in securing full control over the Waste Heap and establishing a solid foothold across the railroad near AKHZ.


Summary:

In summary, the ongoing developments in the Avdiivka battle hinge on the ability of both sides to uphold their logistical routes. The stretched and narrow russian supply lines, under constant Ukrainian surveillance, pose a significant constraint on their further movements, especially beyond the railroad where they already face challenges maintaining a foothold. Conversely, with the onset of the mud season, Ukrainian logistical operations will be hindered as the number of operational vehicles and suitable roads decreases, providing russians with opportunities to target vehicles using artillery and FPV drones. The effective defense of the AKHZ industrial zone and the Orlivka-Berdychi axis by Ukrainians could compel russians to abandon their current plans and adopt a different tactical-operational approach.

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