In recent days, Avdiivka, an operationally vital settlement near Donetsk, turned into the most active section of the frontline. Our team has prepared this brief follow-up report to offer an overview of recent developments in the vicinity of Avdiivka. We used medium-resolution satellite imagery from October 11th and multiple OSINT sources for this update.
On October 10th, Russian forces initiated a ground offensive from two primary directions: Krasnohorivka and Vodiane, with the apparent objective of encircling Avdiivka. Notably, this offensive featured an unprecedented deployment of armored vehicles, which marked a departure from their prior reluctance to engage in large-scale armored assaults, especially following the infamous Vuhledar assault in the winter of 2023. The substantial presence of tanks and APCs underscores the Russian forces' intent to carry out rapid and overwhelming offensives on the flank and rear.
Leveraging artillery, air support, and the serious firepower of their armored units, the Russians managed to suppress, overrun, and in certain instances, seize several Ukrainian positions. This initial success created an opportunity for further advancement.
However, it didn't take long before the progress of Russian forces began to decelerate. Despite their capability to advance as far as the northeast of Stepove, situated in the rear area of Avdiivka, Russian forces encountered minefields, opposition from anti-tank teams, and artillery fire. These combined factors resulted in significant losses and hindered their capacity to capitalize on the initially successful maneuver. Many of these losses were visually confirmed and precisely geolocated.
According to our most conservative estimate, the Russian side incurred a minimum of 36 vehicle losses, including those that were abandoned, damaged, or destroyed. These losses are primarily made of APCs and tanks of various configurations and transportation vehicles.
It is premature to say whether Russian forces will achieve substantial advances in the upcoming days, given the challenging situation for both sides. However, it is already clear that the assault has proven to be highly costly, and it appears that Russians may have initially anticipated more significant gains, considering such a substantial resource allocation for this offensive.
Another conclusion that can be drawn from this is the substantial resources at the Russians' disposal for this offensive. This is important, especially considering their concurrent efforts to advance in Kupiansk's direction and counter the Ukrainian offensive in the South. This reaffirms our previous concerns that the Russian army still maintains reserves. However, as demonstrated, their offensive capabilities appear to be somewhat limited.
List of sources:
Geolocation:
https://twitter.com/EjShahid
https://twitter.com/blinzka
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed
Videos and Photos:
https://deepstatemap.live/
https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/
https://www.facebook.com/brygada.TrO.Poltava/videos/298928019599988/
https://t.me/marmuletik_life/15766
https://t.me/BUAR110ombr/127