2024 Frontline Dynamics: Analyzing the Operational Landscape
The current situation at the frontline remains challenging for Ukrainian troops, yet it remains relatively stable at the moment. Ongoing Russian offensives on multiple fronts, coupled with intense drone and missile hits of Ukrainian cities, suggest a shift in the strategic initiative toward the Russian forces. While the general outlook remains favorable for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, our team foresees the possibility of tactical victories for Russia.
We anticipate that Russian forces will persist in assault operations in key areas such as Kupyansk-Lyman, Bohdanivka-Kostyantynivka, Novobakhmutivka-Novomykhailivka, along with potential counter-attacks in the southern regions, specifically the Robotyne area and Krynky.
It is important to remember that the winter of 2023 also started with a shift in the strategic initiative, transitioning from Ukraine to Russian forces following the liberation of Kherson. Subsequently, Russian forces initiated or sustained offensive operations in the same major areas - Vuhledar, Kreminna, and Bakhmut. Although Bakhmut was captured, Russian forces did not attain any other substantial victories. Notably, in certain locations, such as Vuhledar, they faced a humiliating defeat.
Our team's assessment indicates that Russia currently lacks the necessary forces for a substantial strategic shift or a breakthrough with a subsequential corps-army size maneuver. However, it is noteworthy that Russia has mitigated some of its ammunition shortages by securing supplies from Iran, North Korea, and potentially, according to our sources - Syria. This has enabled Russia to partially cover its ammunition needs, ensuring fire support for advancing assault troops. In contrast, Ukraine is grappling with a serious ammunition shortage, compounded by the unpreparedness of certain defense positions for the winter offensive.
Detailed look
1. Synkivka, Kharkiv Oblast
Russia persists in its assault attempts towards Syn'kivka in the Kharkiv oblast, a crucial defense line to the northeast of Kupyan'sk. Our satellite imagery reveals sustained and intense artillery damage, evident from numerous scorch marks on both Ukrainian positions and the areas of Russian troop advancement. Open-source videos further confirm the continuous advance of Russian forces employing company-sized mechanized units, coupled with notable losses.
Current data available to our team indicates that Russia maintains a significant troop presence in the area, suggesting the ability of Russian forces to keep the pressure in the Kupiansk area in the coming months.
2. Avdiivka
The situation in Avdiivka remains relatively stable, with no notable successes for Russians, breakthroughs, or defense collapses reported. Despite sustaining significant losses, including the destruction of at least 211 vehicles between October and November, Russian forces have shown advancements near the AKHZ plant, towards Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, and in the southern part of Avdiivka, particularly in the industrial zone area.
Satellite imagery analysis, along with ground reports, indicates a continued Russian assault towards Novobakhmutivka and in the area of Stepove, with visible scorch marks confirming ongoing actions. Infantry assaults persist in the AKHZ area.
While the risk of Avdiivka falling still exists, our team is skeptical about the Russians' ability to capitalize on it and advance further. The assaulting forces in the area appear seriously exhausted, making it unlikely for them to execute a deep maneuver unless Russia uses its reserves from Russia — a move that would carry significant risks for them.
3. Bakhmut area
The Bakhmut area has the potential to become a hot zone this winter again, with multiple indications and satellite observations suggesting that Russians have amassed sufficient forces for a significant offensive. Their objective appears to include advancing towards Chasiv Yar through Khromove and Bohdanivka directions and reclaiming lost positions to the south of Bakhmut, particularly in the Klischiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka areas. Following the fall of Khromove and the partial success in Bohdanivka, where Russian forces are currently advancing, it is anticipated that there will be heightened pressure in this area, to advance towards Chasiv Yar.
The Russian forces hold an advantage in ammunition and artillery capabilities, which may result in tactical successes.
The defense of both Klischiivka and Andriivka is challenging, primarily due to the difficult logistics and the fact that both areas are in complete ruins, rendering all structures barely usable for effective defense.
However, our analysis does not foresee any substantial operational successes for the Russians in the Bakhmut area. Unlike the early stages of 2022 when Russian forces executed deep maneuvers into Ukrainian territory and seized extensive territories, the current assessment does not anticipate a similar large-scale success for the Russians in the upcoming offensive.
Our team has serious concerns that Russia might leverage its tactical advantages in the Bakhmut area for propaganda purposes. This could involve signaling that they have successfully reversed the gains made by the Ukrainian military in the fall and summer of 2023. The intended message may signal to the West that Russia can undo any successes achieved with external aid, potentially framing such assistance as wasteful and ineffectual.
4. Mariinka, Novomykhailivka, Vulhedar
In light of the critical situation in the Mariinka area and the progress in Novomykhailivka, it appears that the Russian army is advancing towards the previously outlined objectives. Our prior analyses indicate that the operational goal involves cutting off Vuhledar's rear and logistics, intending to initiate a siege and compel defenders to retreat. In contrast to the battle of Vuheldar in the winter of 2023, where Russian forces attempted a frontal and flanking attack on Vuhledar, the current approach focuses more on disrupting logistical routes to force defenders to retreat.
While our team refrains from definitively assessing the likelihood of success, it is apparent that the Russians have succeeded in pushing Ukrainian artillery far enough to hinder their effective engagement of the railroad between Donetsk and Mariupol. This achievement, at least temporarily, contributes to their ultimate goal in the area.
Summary:
The current situation for Ukrainian troops is deemed unfavorable for two primary reasons: a shortage of personnel due to setbacks in mobilization efforts and an inadequacy of ammunition and weapons stemming from the failure of the US Congress to approve aid. While some experts and independent observers may interpret this scenario as very negative, our team maintains a relatively positive outlook. Despite the challenging circumstances faced by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian forces appear to lack the necessary advantage to transform it into a strategic shift in balance. Consequently, our team does not anticipate significant defense collapses or substantial failures on the Ukrainian side, although tactical losses in defense positions are expected. This situation is reminiscent of Ukrainian successes near Bakhmut earlier in the summer, where tactical gains did not translate into significant shifts in the overall balance of forces.